When will the war stop?

English , Middle East - مشرق وسطٰی , Snippets , / Tuesday, November 26th, 2024

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Abstract
More than thirteen months have passed since the war in Gaza and the West Bank without stopping. Netanyahu and his army continued to commit massacres and destroy infrastructure, homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques. Moreover, displacing more than a million and a half from their homes, all without anyone deterring him.
The article focuses on stopping the war in Gaza without focusing on Lebanon. A possible settlement in Lebanon will likely mature faster than in Gaza because Lebanon’s geopolitical and strategic circumstances differ from those in Gaza.
Opportunities and rejection of solutions
The war went through turns that Netanyahu could have exploited to stop the war. The most prominent of these was the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, head of the Hamas political bureau, but he insisted on continuing, then came the killing of Sinwar, but Netanyahu also did not seize the opportunity to stop the war. Even though the military establishment had announced months ago that it had finished the military targets in the Gaza Strip.

He also rejected all the proposals for the day after the war, starting with the Palestinian Authority managing the Strip, a renewed Palestinian Authority as proposed by the Americans, then a Palestinian technocratic committee, followed by a proposal for a committee run by the United
Nations. Netanyahu continued in his arrogance, haughtiness, and rejection of all solutions; instead, he continued the war of extermination and ethnic cleansing. Unfortunately, the majority of the Israeli people still support the continuation, including the families of the hostages who demand their return and then the completion of the war.
Why the insistence on continuing the war of extermination?
It seems clear that Netanyahu found an excellent opportunity to fulfill the Zionist dream of completing the occupation of Palestine and the possibility of the Jewish state expanding geographically towards southern Lebanon, and achieving personal glory for himself as if he were King David. He is exploiting the unlimited American support regarding weapons, destructive bombs, equipment and money, aircraft carriers for protection, and the latest anti-missile defense system (THAAD). In addition to British, German, French, and Italian support, military experts, intelligence support and reconnaissance aircraft, and the use of the veto in the Security Council vote. Unfortunately, many Arab countries around him are uniting to end the Islamic Resistance Movement and agree with him on the need to get rid of it. And here he is moving to war in Lebanon under the same Western support and Arab silence. Therefore, he is facing an irreplaceable historical opportunity to achieve his dream while he is overwhelmed by this Western military and political support and protection, and this Arab regional silence.
Netanyahu also succeeded in continuing the war until President Trump came to power, and he is delaying until Trump’s foreign policy team is formed, and it appears to be a right-wing Zionist extremist team. Therefore, Netanyahu hopes that this team will assume its duties to give him greater power to annex the West Bank, adopt the settlements as official cities and villages (not as aggression and occupation), adopt the military occupation of Gaza, perhaps expand towards Lebanon, implement the transfer towards Jordan, and other strategic achievements.

Effective drivers in the continuation of the war
Three main driving forces can be observed on the Israeli side: the extent to which the army can bear human losses, the extent of the Israeli government’s cohesion, and the extent of the internal cohesion of Israeli society with the issue of prisoners.
Despite the deep internal conflict in the Israeli government represented by some members of the War Council versus Netanyahu and the extremists behind him in his government; and the dismissal of Defense Minister Galant (on the eve of President Trump’s victory), this did not affect the cessation of the war. Instead, his government remained cohesive with the support of the religious extremists with him.
Despite the heavy losses of the army in terms of dead, wounded and psychologically damaged, Netanyahu raised the threshold of tolerating losses and continued the war of extermination with the approval of the Israeli people.
The families of the prisoners and those supporting them continued to protest to no avail, and he applies the “Hannibal” principle (a dead soldier is better than captured one). The opposition is also weak (and originally supports the war on Lebanon). In spite of all of that, this did not affect the cessation of the war or even the conclusion of a swap deal.
In contrast, the Palestinian people under the ethnic cleansing war have so far lost more than 200,000 martyrs, wounded, missing and psychologically damaged in Gaza (i.e. one tenth of the population of Gaza) and have remained steadfast in their land. No attempt to displace them towards Egypt have succeeded.
The West Bank is being crushed, work has stopped there for a year, poverty is wrapping around the necks of hundreds of thousands there, and the killing and arrest machine does not stop in the cities and camps of the West Bank. Although the spirit and idea of resistance still exists, the resistance in Gaza and the West Bank has been exhausted, and has done its part from the perspective of resisting the occupation and the steadfastness of the people. Consequently, there

are no actual internal force capable of stopping the war, neither on the Palestinian side nor on the Israeli side.
Are there any indications of stopping the war?
After 13 months of war and the rejection of all proposed solutions, it has become clear (from a strategic perspective) that Netanyahu has pushed the region into a state of complexity, approaching a state of chaos. Thus, the region becomes very sensitive to any small variable that could have a major unexpected impact, which is not proportionate to its small size.
Here we monitor a group of small events that could interact, and could have a tangible impact that may influence the state of the continuation of the war. These include, but are not limited to:
1. As a result of the strikes from various fronts (Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq), Israel has been slapping for more than 13 months continuously for the first time in its history. Moreover, the confidence of the Israeli society in their security and military system was shaken, the principle of Israeli deterrence was eroded, and it became completely clear that Israel is unable to continue without continuous American support; hence, Israel has become afflicted with the fragility of deterrence.
2. The resistance arenas have also proven the fragility of Israeli sovereignty. Resistance was able, with its modest capabilities, to disrupt air and train traffic, paralyze some ports, put thousands in shelters for hours daily, and disrupt the economy. Accordingly, Israel suffers from both the fragility of sovereignty, and the fragility of deterrence. Netanyahu insists on continuing to put his state under these strikes, confusion, and sirens for more than a year. Thus, he insists on not reaping strategic gains, but rather disrupting the economy, pushing hundreds of thousands to emigrate and wasting the state’s prestige and sovereignty.
3. The new negative demographic changes because of the war such as increasing reverse migration of hundreds of thousands, the political division of the Israeli political system, the separation of Israeli society, and the deep internal disputes, especially with the Haredim. In addition to the

presence of a large number of dead, wounded, and disabled young people, all of which confuse and distort the demographic situation of Israeli society and weaken its unity.
4. Including the crisis in Ukraine and the transition of the war to the stage of using advanced and violent weapons where a group of Western European countries (for the first time) preparing their people for war, as in the Baltic States, Germany, and Britain. This means that Netanyahu is distracting their focus due to his endless war in Palestine and Lebanon, and the conflict with Iran. Consequently, his supporters are unable to provide him with weapons. Furthermore, the American military establishment may not be able to provide Israel with a strategic stockpile of weapons in light of the escalating tension with Russia and China.
5. The decisions of the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court create a frightening atmosphere for many Israeli, Western, and American officials and many governmental parties in various countries that support Israel for fear of legal prosecutions resulting from that.
6. In addition to major shifts in the thinking of Western youth, who have begun to strongly and significantly support Palestinian rights, this will put pressure on Western governments. This includes the deterioration of the reputation of Israel among Western peoples in general. In addition to the support in South American countries, and the recognition of the State of Palestine by a new group of Western countries such as Spain, Ireland, and others.
7. An internal American conflict is expected between President Trump and the populists supporting him and the deep state. This conflict could develop into internal American tension, where supporting Israel does not become the American priority, but rather paying attention to the American interior is the priority.
8. The growing Arab popular resentment, especially in neighboring countries, because of the feeling of helplessness in supporting their brothers in Palestine with the silence of the ruling regimes. With the increasing existential threat to the Jordanian state with the possibility of implementing the old-new transfer plan and the pressure on Egypt by receiving hundreds of thousands of Gazans as part of the displacement plan.
9. Therefore, it seems that those who manage the global Zionist project, and some deep countries in Europe and the United States, have begun to realize that Netanyahu, with his stubbornness, is no longer able to reap the strategic results and gains resulting from the war. Rather than he will waste them with his stubbornness; he has lost his rationality and political wisdom, and has begun to pose a real danger to the Zionist project, and to Israel itself. He has become rebellious, and an unbearable burden on the international community. Moreover, in light of the conflict with Russia and China, he is causing the region to ignite. Thus, the West will lose its interests due to this unending war.
10. Hence, the issuance of the decision to arrest Netanyahu and the former Minister of Defense can be interpreted as a clear indication that he has become an internationally unwelcome outsider. This will certainly be reflected upon senior and even junior officers due to the fear of international prosecution, which will confuse the military establishment. Consequently, this will hinder his travels, be persecuted, and many of his formerly supportive politicians will abandon him because it will be a threat to them as they support a person wanted by the International Criminal Court. It is also a message that international justice reaches everyone regardless of gender, religion, nationality, or affiliation. Then, finally, it is a nose-breaker for his arrogance and haughtiness.
11. Netanyahu is now being legally pursued by Attorney General Gali Miara regarding the leaks; Miara is the only person capable of threatening him legally. He appeared confused in the speech he gave on Saturday, 23 November 2024, regarding the leaks from his office, and he appeared to be defending himself with clear nervousness.
Thus, there is a possibility that these small effects (butterfly effect) will roll within the internal and external environment to turn into a ball of ice and then surprise Netanyahu and his extremist war-mongers to accept a cease-fire.

 

Conclusion
The situation of the Palestinian issue is very critical, Israeli arrogance has reached its peak, and there are no internal Palestinian or Israeli factors capable of stopping the war. However, groups of effects in the external and internal environment are developing within this complexity. It is possible
that these internal and external effects mentioned above, in light of many crucial factors including the tension in the international scene between Western Europe and America on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand, and the deterioration of the economic situation in Europe and neighboring countries, especially Jordan and Egypt. In addition to the Western political changes in terms of fear of the rise of the European far right, and clear Western youth shifting towards supporting the Palestinian cause and its justice. Furthermore, the bad reputation of Israel due to the atrocities and genocide in Gaza, extermination, and ethnic cleansing. Moreover, the reverse migration of hundreds of thousands of Jews, and the frustration of a large percentage of Arab and Islamic peoples due to their feeling of helplessness. All these rolling factors may develop over to cause a revolution in the general scene toward stopping the war.
Dr. Wael Shadid
The Center of leadership and Diplomacy
President
25 Nov 2024