rki.news
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 percent, according to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Tuesday. The projection for 2027 remains unchanged at 3.2 percent.
The IMF said the revision reflects weaker global conditions, including geopolitical tensions, disrupted trade flows, and rising inflationary pressures. The 2026 forecast marks a slowdown from the estimated 3.4 percent global growth recorded in 2025.
Due to uncertainty from conflict-related disruptions, the IMF used a “reference forecast” instead of a traditional baseline scenario, assuming impacts will be limited in duration and intensity, with disruptions easing by mid-2026.
Under this outlook, global inflation is expected to rise to 4.4 percent in 2026 before easing to 3.7 percent in 2027. Energy prices are projected to increase by 19 percent in 2026, including a 21.4 percent rise in oil prices. Food prices are also expected to remain elevated due to higher energy and fertilizer costs, trade disruptions, and transport expenses.
Global trade growth is forecast to slow to 2.8 percent in 2026 from 5.1 percent in 2025 before recovering to 3.8 percent in 2027. The IMF warned that lower-income energy-importing countries will face the greatest pressure from rising import costs and currency depreciation.
Growth forecasts for emerging markets have been revised downward, while advanced economies remain broadly stable. The report also noted that trade restrictions may worsen global output and urged stronger international cooperation and coordinated policy responses to restore economic stability.