rki.news
By Shams Abbasi
Both domestic and international media are intently focused on the anticipated negotiations involving Pakistan. It now appears that both parties are moving toward an agreement.
At present, preparations are underway in Islamabad for talks between Iran and the United States. Yet, on the surface, the two nations seem to be drifting once again toward conflict. Donald Trump has issued threats of a ground invasion of Iran and announced the continuation of a blockade. In response, Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.
In light of all this, the public is urged to remain calm and observe events with patience. U.S. stock and trade markets remain closed on Saturdays and Sundays, and it is during this window that Trump has begun to escalate rhetoric about war—met, in equal measure, by Iran’s counter-statements. Both sides are primarily addressing their domestic audiences: the United States seeks to project dominance, while Iran shows no willingness to concede.
There is reason to hope that by Monday morning, before markets reopen, Trump will shift his tone toward peace, and Iran will respond accordingly. Between Tuesday and Thursday, there is a strong possibility that Trump and Iranian leadership may meet in Islamabad. The ceasefire is set to expire on Wednesday, April 22; either an agreement will be reached before then, or the ceasefire will be extended.
American defense think tanks have already indicated that the optimal window for ground operations in Iran ended with March. In the coming weeks, an intense heatwave will begin. By June, temperatures in coastal regions of the Persian Gulf—such as Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Qeshm, Kish Island, and areas near Khuzestan like Ahvaz and Abadan—often exceed 50°C. More severe than the heat itself is the suffocating humidity. By July, the Gulf’s waters become extremely warm, pushing the “heat index” (feels-like temperature) to between 65°C and 82°C (149°F to 180°F), levels that are hazardous to human survival.
In such conditions, only those who have lived in the region for generations and are acclimatized can function effectively. Any outsider would likely succumb to heatstroke within hours. Conducting ground military operations under these conditions would risk outcomes similar to those faced by Nazi forces during their winter campaign in Russia during World War II.
Even so, if Trump were to make the reckless decision to proceed, the United States might come to regret it as deeply as it did in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Had Trump truly been that imprudent, a ceasefire would never have been declared in the first place.