rki.news
By Haseeb Ahmed

The Middle East has once again become the center of global politics. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have caused concern not only in the region but across the world. Exchanges of statements, threats, and counter threats have further intensified the atmosphere. Although no formal announcement of an attack has been made by Israel, diplomatic and military activities have fueled speculation that a major development may be imminent in the region.

Iran has taken a firm stance, stating that if it is attacked, it could target not only Israel but also American bases located in Arab countries where U.S. forces are present. On the other hand, diplomatic support from China and Russia has further complicated the situation, as this dispute no longer remains limited to two countries but also involves the interests of major global powers.

The most significant aspect of this issue is the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. A large portion of the world’s oil supply passes through this narrow waterway. If for any reason, this route were to be closed, it could lead to a severe shortage of oil in global markets. As a result, oil prices could skyrocket, inflation could rise, and the global economy could suffer a serious shock. The effects would not be limited to Europe or Asia; even the United States would not remain immune to such economic pressure.

There has long been debate over the United States’ alleged “regime change” policy toward Iran. However, past experiences particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrate that attempting to alter a country’s internal system through external pressure is extremely complex and often yields unpredictable consequences. Iran is a state with a strong institutional structure and deep religious and ideological foundations, where any external intervention could provoke a severe reaction.

Another important question is whether American leadership particularly figures such as President Donald Trump could steer the world toward a broader war. In reality, global politics is not determined solely by the decisions of a single individual. Military advisors, Congress, allied nations, international pressure, and economic interests all play significant roles. Nevertheless, a leader’s mindset and rhetoric can certainly influence the overall environment.

Iran’s warning that if it is destroyed, it will take others down with it can be understood as part of a strategy of “deterrence” aimed at convincing an adversary that the cost of an attack would be extremely high. Similarly, the United States seeks to maintain pressure through its military superiority and the support of its allies.

In the current situation, the greatest need is for restraint, diplomacy, and dialogue. Wars are easy to start but difficult to end. A single spark could engulf the entire region, with consequences that may be felt for generations. Global powers must consider not only their own interests but also global peace and economic stability.

The world is already facing economic pressures, climate change, and regional conflicts. In such circumstances, another major war could prove disastrous not only for the region but for humanity as a whole. It is hoped that wisdom and diplomacy will prevail, so that the Middle East can be spared yet another devastating conflict.